A Kern County update of 11,578 votes helped cut incumbent TJ Cox’s deficit as he continues to trail David Valadao in the 21st Congressional District race.
In the update released today, Cox took 57.2% of the votes for a net of 1,670. In Tulare County update Thursday evening, Valadao took 58.6% of the 70 new votes, or a net of 12.
Through Thursday evening, Valadao leads by 2,368 votes, or 50.8% to Cox’s 49.2%. Prior to today, Valadao’s lead stood at more than 4,000 votes.
Valadao (R-Hanford) is trying to unseat the first-term Cox (D-Fresno) and reverse the result in 2018, when Cox defeated then-Congressman Valadao by 862 votes.
Overall Vote Totals, by Number and by County
| Congress 21 |
Fresno |
Tulare |
Kings |
Kern |
TOTAL |
Lead |
Percentage |
| Cox (D) |
27,528 |
2,728 |
15,811 |
28,910 |
74,977 |
(2,368) |
49.2% |
| Valadao (R) |
29,212 |
2,727 |
25,906 |
19,500 |
77,345 |
2,368 |
50.8% |
| Last reported |
Nov. 10, 1:45 p.m. |
Nov. 12, 5:05 p.m. |
Nov. 6, 2:53 p.m. |
Nov. 12, 11:30 a.m. |
|
|
|
| Estimated remainder in CD 21 |
844 |
191 |
1,529 |
11,856 |
14,420 |
|
|
While Cox took more than 60% on Election Night returns in Kern County, subsequent updates have seen the margin shrink. In a Nov. 7 update, Cox took 58.6% of newly counted Kern County votes; Tuesday, he earned 55.9%.
Kern County Update for Nov. 12
| Kern County |
New Votes |
For Cox |
For Valadao |
Difference |
|
11,578 |
6,624 |
4,954 |
1,670 for Cox |
|
|
57.2% |
42.8% |
|
Tulare County Update for Nov. 12
| Tulare County |
New Votes |
For Cox |
For Valadao |
Difference |
|
70 |
29 |
41 |
12 for Valadao |
|
|
41.4% |
58.6% |
|
Remaining Votes Estimate
Of the four counties that comprise the district, the bulk of votes remain in Kern County. While the county says they do not know how many of their approximately 45,000 votes county wide are in the district, based on the percentage of county voters who reside in the county district (25.4%), that would be 11,856.
The estimated votes remaining are just an estimate by GV Wire℠. The numbers will change depending on how many new votes are actually reported countywide.
Kings County has the next largest estimated total yet to report, 1,529 countywide. However, their counting halted earlier this week because of a report of COVID-19 exposure. Counting is scheduled to resume on Nov. 21.
Fresno County is scheduled to report next on Friday afternoon. It has 5,090 votes remaining to be counted, with 844 estimated in the congressional district.
Tulare County has been reporting nightly. It has an estimated 191 district votes yet to count.
Vote Totals by Percentage, by County
| Congress 21 |
Fresno |
Tulare |
Kings |
Kern |
| Cox (D) |
48.5% |
50.01% |
37.9% |
59.7% |
| Valadao (R) |
51.5% |
49.99% |
62.1% |
40.3% |
Can Cox Overtake Valadao?
If vote percentages remain constant, and applying them to the estimated remaining vote count, Valadao may just have enough to hold on.
That GV Wire calculation has changed based on yesterday’s report, as Cox’s overall percentage lead in Kern County slipped 0.8%.
If things hold steady, Cox would pick up a net of 1,911 votes, but not enough to overtake Valadao’s current lead.
Estimated Shares of Remaining Votes by County and Overall
| Estimated Vote Share |
Fresno |
Tulare |
Kings |
Kern |
TOTAL |
Lead |
| Cox (D) |
409 |
96 |
580 |
7,080 |
8,165 |
1,910 |
| Valadao (R) |
435 |
95 |
949 |
4,776 |
6,255 |
|
Mark Borba
November 13, 2020 at 6:09 am
Beware of “vans” pulling into the parking garages adjacent to the counting venues…and delivering cardboard boxes! “Just sayin’…”